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Royal Ascot Betting Tips – Thursday

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It’s Ladies’ Day at Royal Ascot and the weather looks magnificent for what should be a cracking day’s racing.

Whilst the likes of Gok Wan will be out surveying the outfits on display this afternoon, we will be concentrating on the more important business of Thursday’s racing. 

Here is our preview of Day Three at the Royal meeting. If you want more tips like this, we have completed a top 10 list of free racing tips here. 

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes – Group 2 over 5f

This is a race for 2 year olds and consequently there is very little form to go on, with most of the runners only having run once or twice.

According to the bookies this should be a two-horse race between King of Rooks (currently around 11/8) and Log Out Island who has been backed in heavily this morning from 5/2 into around 15/8. King of Rooks won the National Stakes at Sandown in impressive fashion and that form has worked out well with the second horse that day Buratino winning not only the Coventry Stakes on Tuesday but also the Woodcote at Epsom. 

Log Out Island has only run once, but that was a course and distance win here at Ascot. However, it is Jazz Legend who appeals at 20/1, having won a useful maiden at Haydock and may be worth a place interest here.

 Selections: 1 pt win King of Rooks 11/8 

                      0.5pts e/w Jazz Legend 20/1

 

3.05 – Tercentenary Stakes – Group 3 over 1m2f

The favourite is Time Test at a best priced 5/2 and this horse won an impressive Newbury in the London Gold Cup. The horse who won this race a year ago (Cannock Chase) also won that handicap so it is a good omen. However, the question remains how well this horse will step up into group company from handicap races.

There will be much rejoicing if the Queen’s horse, Peacock, wins the race and this Richard Hannon trained colt was only narrowly beaten by the Derby Winner Golden Horn two runs agao so will have a real chance here.

Selections: 1pt win Time Test 5/2

                     0.5pts e/w Peacock 6/1

 

3.40 – Ribblesdale Stakes – Group 2 over 1m4f

The strong favourite for this race is Pleascach who is currently priced around the 11/8 mark. The 1,000 Guineas winner will take all the beating if she can stay the extra half mile. She has recently been bought by Godolphin who fancy their chances of landing a big prize with this one.

Better value may be found lower down in the betting however and Curvy fits the bill. A progressive horse and half-sister to Thakafaat who won this race when it was held at York 10 years ago. She has won her last three races, the most recent of which was a Group 3 at the Curragh so has a real chance of upsetting the formbook here. 

Selection:  1pt e/w Curvy at 7/1

 

4.20 – Gold Cup – Group One over 2m4f

The big race of the day is the Gold Cup, a marathon race over 2 and a half miles. As you would expect, stamina is the key and conditions will play an important factor.

It is expected to be good to firm today at Ascot, which may not suit favourite Forgotten Rules, who would prefer a bit of give in the ground. 

A horse who may prefer the ground is Kingfisher, who faces a step up in trip but is trained by Aiden O’Brien who has won this race six times in the last 10 years. Winner of its last race and at 10/1, this has to represent good each-way value.

Another with a decent claim is Mizzou, who has won at Ascot before and has the pedigree to triumph here too. The ground will not be too much of a concern and at 11/2 has a sound chance.

Selections: 1pt e/w Kingfisher 10/1

                     1pt win Mizzou 11/2

 

5.00 – Britannia Stakes – Class 2 Heritage Handicap over 1m

A wide open race where the favourite is 9/1 in the shape of Portage. With 30 runners listed to line up, these types of race can be something of a lottery and it depends a lot on how the horses group that can determine the outcome.

So probably best to keep stakes low for this one but it could be worth siding with Make It Up at 20/1. Apprentice jockey Edward Greatrex claims 7lbs which puts this horse in a very nice weight and looks to come on for its previous run at Epsom.

Selection: 0.5pts e/w Make It Up at 20/1

 

5.35 – King George V Stakes – Class 2 Handicap over 1m2f

Another open looking race in the last as Dissolution claims favouritism at 7/2 and has been heavily backed this morning. It is likely the step up in trip will be appreciated and with some useful handicap form including two wins and two seconds in its last four, has every chance here.

At a larger price, Belgrade could be worth an interest at 25/1. A very impressive winner at Bath in its last run when it won going away, this looks to be an under the radar sort for Richard Hannon and with Richard Hughes booked, expect a big run.

Selections: 1pt win Dissolution at 7/2

                     1pt e/w Belgrade at 25/1

 

US Open Betting Tips

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Following our preview of the US Open golf taking place this week, here are our outright tips for the event:

Phil Mickelson – 18/1 each way (1/4 top 6 finish with Totesport and Stan James)

Phil is one of the few players who has taken the time to visit Chambers Bay before this week and it seems from all reports that will give him a distinct advantage. Lefty’s positive comments about the course should also not be overlooked whilst so many players are going out of their way to criticise it.

The American comes off a confidence-boosting third place finish last week and showed with a second place finish at the Masters in April that he is still more than capable of contending in major championships.

Mickelson also possesses one of the world’s best short games, which will be crucial around these hugely sloping greens. With six second place finishes at the US Open, it would be a great story if he could complete the career grand slam here this week.

Billy Horschel – 55/1 each way (1/4 top 6 with Paddy Power)

The plucky American showed his mettle when winning the Fedex Cup last Autumn, going some way to fulfilling his huge potential. He is a big game player and with some good form in recent events with four top 20s in a row, may be coming to the boil at just the right time. Has a good short game and can be an electric putter at times. 

Brandt Snedeker – 45/1 each way (1/4 top 6 with B365, Paddy Power, Skybet & Sportingbet)

Sneds has thankfully sorted out the “two way miss” he had going last season and has been showing some really decent form recently with 6th at the Byron Nelson Championship and 2nd at Colonial in his last two starts. With a win at Pebble Beach earlier this year, his confidence will be strong coming in here and there are few better putters in the world than Brandt. Has shown he can handle links-style golf with a close finish at the British Open at Lytham three years ago. This course is unlikely to faze the cool-headed American and he may well push on and capture his first major here.

Ryan Moore – 80/1 each way (1/4 top 6 finish general)

Local hero Ryan Moore finally gets a chance to play a major in the Pacific Northwest and it seems he is relishing the chance to play in front of his home fans. Having lived close by, Moore is familiar with the course which should present him with a distinct advantage this week. With 7 top-25 finishes this season, the former US Amateur champion would love nothing more (excuse the pun) than to add to his collection of USGA titles by winning in front of home support here.

Charley Hoffman – 125/1 each way (1/4 top 6 finish general)

The likable “Hoffmeister” had a decent run at the Masters until he ran out of steam as Speith stormed away with the title on Sunday. But he has continued his strong form since then, with a second place finish at the Byron Nelson in his last start and a 10th place finish at the Colonial before that. Already a winner this season and having made the cut in all of his three previous US Opens, Hoffman seems too big a price at 125/1.

Ernie Els – 200/1 each way (1/4 the odds top 6 finish)

There are few players with better records on links-style courses than the big South African. With two titles and a host of other top 10 finishes at the British Open, Ernie has demonstrated he has all the skills and experience to handle the vagaries of links golf. He may not be as consistent as he once was, but he showed flashes of brilliance at the Masters in April, suggesting that when he gets on a course that suits his game, the Big Easy may still be able to recapture his form of old.

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US Open Preview – A “Ridiculous Farce?”

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The US Open comes to the Pacific Northwest for the first time in its history as it heads to the Chambers Bay course just outside Seattle in Washington this week.

The course certainly seems to have split opinion amongst the pros, with some like Ryan Palmer calling it “ridiculous” and Ian Poulter saying it was a “farce” before he had even seen it.

There are multiple elements about this course that have upset some of the pros and cast this as perhaps the most controversial US Open in recent history. 

So what is getting the players in such a froth?

What it is about this course that is getting so many of the pros into a lather?

Well, firstly the fairways will be wide, which is unusual for US Opens. Secondly, the greens have some huge slopes on them which will make putting difficult and some shots nigh-on impossible if you miss the greens. 

But what is really unusual about this venue is that it will have some very quirky features – sloping tee boxes, blind shots and perhaps most controversially of all, some holes that will play up to 100 yards different in length depending on which tee box is used, so some days holes will play as par fours and another day as par fives.

Whilst some pros have blasted the course however, some are more complimentary. Phil Mickelson, for instance, said he thought it was “wonderful,” adding “It’s not going to be your typical US Open, hit and hack out of tough. You’re going to be able to control it much more like British Opens than I’ve ever seen, where there’s a lot of room and a lot of firm fairway cut.’

As Jack Nicklaus said, they do not build golf courses to suit your game, you have to suit your game to the course. So it may be the player who manages their game and enjoys the unusual challenge that Chambers Bay presents that triumphs this week.

It appears to be an advantage this week to have visited the course and learnt some of its quirks. The Director of the USGA, Mike Davis, certainly thought so when he said – in a statement that generated a lot of controversy – that:

“I would contend that there is no way — no way — a player would have success here at Chambers Bay unless he really studies the golf course and learns it. The idea of coming in and playing two practice rounds and having your caddie just walk it and using your yardage book, that person’s done [and] will not win the US Open.”

Players like Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods have been following Davis’s advice and visiting the course in preparation for this week’s events. 

It will be interesting to see come the end of the week whether Davis’s comments turn out to be true or whether someone can come here “fresh” and still win the trophy.

Whatever does happen, it seems a player with imagination and who can handle adversity is most likely to triumph at Chambers Bay. 

As Jack Nicklaus also said, he always enjoyed it when other players moaned about a course because for every one that did, he knew it was one less player he needed to beat that week. 

The big question this week then will be – how many players will beat themselves and fall foul of this mighty course’s demands?

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Watch out for our full betting preview later today.

 

 

 

 

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Women’s World Cup: Can an Outsider Win Again?

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In 2011, it appeared to everyone that the stars had aligned to allow Germany to claim an unprecedented third consecutive World Cup victory. They were playing the tournament as the hosts and favourites, and as they walked out onto the field to take on a Japanese team who had impressed in the group stages, it’s fair to say there were few people inside the Volkswagen-Arena in Wolfsburg who predicted the upset that would follow.

Japan would go onto become the first Asian winners of the Women’s World Cup, not only downing the hosts but the USA too – the two teams that have occupied the positions as favourites for this year’s World Cup that has just got underway in Canada. But what are the chances for this year’s crop of dark horses? Is there a legitimate case for any of the outsiders to cause a second consecutive tournament upset for both Germany and the US? Below, we outline the teams with the best hopes of doing just that.

France – priced from 5/1 to 7/1

Dubbed by the Guardian as ‘arguably the most accomplished side in world football today’, there are many people who believe if anyone is going to topple the challenge of the big two, it’s the French. Despite their perceived inability to fulfil their potential on the big stage, this French team appears to be solid and, more importantly, confident in their own ability. Complete with Lyon captain Wendie Renard leading the team out, there is no question that they’ll be difficult to beat, making them perhaps the best bet for anyone looking to go against the grain this year.

Canada – priced from 7/1 to 12/1

It would be difficult to complete this blog without a significant mention for this year’s hosts. Of course, you can never count against home advantage when it comes to one-off games, but it would be a disservice to this group of players to say that will be the only thing carrying them through. With a great balance of experience and youthful exuberance, from talisman striker Christine Sinclair to her heir-apparent, 17 year old Justine Fleming, the odds on Canada to pip the Germans and their arch rivals to the trophy are certainly worth taking note of.

Brazil – priced from 8/1 to 12/1

Brazil’s women aren’t the powerhouse that they are perceived to be in the men’s game (World Cup 2014’s capitulation notwithstanding), but you’d be foolish to write them off getting into the last four (at least) this summer. From there, as we know, anything can happen – and with the creativity and drive of arguably the best player the women’s game has ever seen, Marta, still the engine of the team there is every chance that with a kind draw this Brazil team can go all the way.

Japan – priced from 8/1 to 12/1

It may seem odd that the reigning champions are considered such outsiders, but if anything it does much to highlight the sheer surprise of their victory four years ago. Nowadays, people are wise to their way of playing and their recent form has done nothing to suggest they can launch a successful defence this time round. However, nobody expected them to perform the way they did in Germany and with the return of the veteran Homare Sawa (playing in her 6th World Cup) there is a feeling of quiet confidence in the Japanese camp. With odds as long as 12/1 for the holders, it’s not hard to see why many have felt them to be worth a flutter this year.

England – priced from 21/1 to 25/1

We couldn’t finish off the roundabout without weighing up the chances of England’s women. It’s been a period of transition since the departure of long-term coach Hope Powell and the squad, it seems, are just starting to click again. The odds are long due to the fact we’ve been – predictably – drawn into a tricky group, with Columbia and Mexico keeping France company as our Group F opponents. However, with Man City star Jill Scott back in the heart of the midfield and no real pressure on the team as a whole, could this be England’s year?

A Weekend of Free Bets

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We have  a cracking weekend of sport coming up and to celebrate the occasion the bookies have a range of free bets on offer for the more savvy punter to take advantage of.

Epsom Oaks and Derby

One of the top fixtures in the racing calendar, this weekend we have the Derby and Oaks from Epsom. 

The Oaks is held today (Friday) at 4.30pm and the favourite is Legatissimo at around  3/1. 

There are some good offers around today, with Coral offering a £10 free bet in the Oaks if you bet £10 in the 2pm race.

Skybet offer money back if your horse is 2nd or 3rd in 2pm race and Paddy Power are offering £10 free in the 2.30 if you bet £20 on the 2pm race.

Meanwhile Boylesports offer a £25 free bet for the Investec Mile at 3.45 if you bet £25 in the 2.35 race.

Champions League Final

The Champions League final is tomorrow and is set to be a classic defence against attack encounter. 

Barcelona have been breathtaking going forward in the latter part of the season, with the dream front three of Messi, Neymar and Suarez gelling just as all football purists hoped they would. 

What a turn around from a few months ago, when Barca trailed Real Madrid in the league and some fans were calling for Luis Enrique’s head.

If they want to win the trophy though, Barca will have to overcome one of the meanest defences in Europe in the shape of Juventus. With the evergreen Buffon in goal, the Spanish champions will have to be a their best to break through what will surely be a tough rearguard action from the Old Lady. 

To mark what should be a fascinating final, Bet 365 are offering a free £50 in-play bet for the final.

French Open Tennis Finals

We were correct in forecasting that Nadal would lose his crown at Roland Garros, losing to a rampant Novak Djokovic in the quarter final on Wednesday. The Serbian was in devastating form and it will take perhaps the performance of Murray’s career to overcome him in today’s semifinal.

Certainly the bookies think so, with the world number one priced at no better than 1/5 to win today. 

In the other semi-final, the enigmatic Jo-Wilfred Tsonga will be roared on by the home crowds in his match up against Swiss Stan Wawrinka.

It is slightly surprising to see Wawrinka priced up as such a strong favourite at around 2/5, as this has the look of quite a tight match to me.

The main question for the women’s final tomorrow will be whether Serena Williams is well enough to perform to her optimum level against underdog Lucie Safarova.

The American has been struggling with the flu since the third round, but that hasn’t stopped her powering her way through to the final and unless her condition really deteriorates before tomorrow’s final, then it is tough to see her being beaten.

Canadian GP

And to cap things off we have the Canadian GP, where Lewis Hamilton will be hoping to get over his disappointment in Monaco and get back to winning ways.

Betfair are offering 5/1 that Hamilton wins the Canadian Grand Prix, with money back if you lose and £100 in free bets for new customers.

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Master Racing Tipster – Results Update

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We are just over two months into our review of Master Racing Tipster so thought it was time to provide a results update.

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Big Race Bookie Busters – Results Update

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I just wanted to give a quick update on our trial of Big Race Bookie Busters here at Honest Betting Reviews.

It is just over two months into our trial and the performance so far has been fantastic.

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Results Update – Quentin Franks Racing

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We are two months into our trial of Quentin Franks Racing so thought it would be a good time for a results update.

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Elliott Sports Analysis – Results Update

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We are two months into our review of Elliott’s Sports Analysis from renowned tipster Keith Elliott.

The service focuses mainly on golf, which is where Keith has built his reputation as a formidable tipster over the years, also publishing a number of books on golf betting.

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Could Nadal’s Reign In Paris Finally End?

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Men’s French Open Betting Preview

The bookies have priced up the French Open and it’s quite astonishing to see Rafael Nadal priced up as the second favourite, being as high as 9/2 with Paddy Power. 

The Spaniard has won an incredible 9 French Open titles, an all time record and one which will perhaps never be beaten.

Nadal’s only ever loss at the tournament since he first played it way back in 2005 came to Robin Soderling at the 2009 event. His record on the clay at Roland Garros is an almost unfathomable 66-1.

The draw has not been kind to the undisputed “King of Clay” this year however, with Rafa due to meet world number one Novak Djokovic in the quarter finals, followed by a potential semi-final with Andy Murray, who he recently lost to in the final of Madrid in straight sets.

The Spaniard has also been on poor form this year, yet to win on clay for the first time in his career.

The bookies have priced Djokovic as the odds-on favourite at a best priced 10/11, also with Paddy Power. 

The Serbian has looked imperious this season but is yet to win at Roland Garros and may well have to beat the other three members of the “big four” – Nadal, Murray and Federer – if he is take the title. 

I strongly suspect Djokovic will trade higher at some stage of the tournament and am not
particularly keen to back him now at odds-on.

A much better selection would seem to be Roger Federer, who has a very kind draw having avoided the other members of the “big four” in his half of the draw.

Before last week’s Rome final, Barry Cowan was absolutely incredulous on Sky Sports that Federer was priced up at 20/1 for the title, at higher odds even than Kei Nishikori, a man without a single grand slam title to his name.

I had an interest there and would not put people off backing the Swiss maestro at 12/1.

Federer is remarkably consistent in grand slams and if he makes it to the latter stages, his price will be a fraction of its current level, presenting a great trading opportunity.

If he makes it to the final to face one of the other big four, he will probably be around the 2/1 to 3/1 mark, although if he is against Murray expect the odds to be closer to evens.

Whatever happens this week, one thing is for sure – this is the most open looking French Open since Nadal first set foot on the clay of Roland Garros ten years ago.

Women’s French Open Betting Preview

Serena Williams starts as the 11/4 favourite for the women’s tournament at Roland Garros. 

Whilst you cannot question the American’s incredible 19 grand slam wins, she has only won the French Open once since 2002. She seems to struggle on the slow surface in the French capital, having suffered an early round defeat in her last visit.

Much more at home on the faster surfaces of Wimbledon and the US Open, it does not appear great value backing Serena at 11/4.

However, the second favourite in the tournament is Maria Sharapova and the Russian seems to enjoy a greater affinity with the clay court surface than her rival at the top of the market. She has been to three finals in a row, winning the title in 2012 and 2014.

At a general 9/2 price, Sharapova seems to represent good value. At half the odds to make the final, an each-way bet would seem a sensible selection here.